Peak sales time prediction in new product sales: Can a product manager rely on it?

Trichy, V Krishnan, Shanfei Feng, DC Jain

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal

84 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Managers dealing with new products need to forecast sales growth, especially the time at which the sales would reach the peak, known as the peak sales time (T*). In most cases, they only have a few initial years' data to predict T*. Although product managers manage to predict T*, there is no method to date that can predict T* accurately. In this paper, we develop a new metric based on the diffusion modeling framework that can help in assessing the prediction accuracy of T*. This metric is built on the premise that observed sales growth is affected both by the force that systematically varies with time and by the non-systematic random forces. We show that the two forces must be carefully combined to assess if a predicted T* is accurate enough. In addition, we empirically prove the efficacy of the proposed metric.
Original languageEnglish
Article number114054
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Business Research
Volume165
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2023

Keywords

  • New product diffusion
  • Peak sales time
  • Prediction accuracy

Indexed by

  • ABDC-A
  • SSCI

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Peak sales time prediction in new product sales: Can a product manager rely on it?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this