Deflating China's nominal GDP: 2004–2018

Pingyao Lai (First Author), Tian Zhu (Participant Author)

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This paper is a preliminary attempt to use both the value added approach with double deflation and the expenditure approach to deflate China's nominal GDP over 15 years (2004-2018). The results show that China's real GDP growth during the period has significantly more fluctuations than the official statistics indicate. Additionally, inflation, as measured by the official implicit GDP deflator, is generally overestimated during boom years but underestimated during downturn years. In particular, it is shown that China's growth slowdown in recent years before the COVID19 pandemic may have been more severe than official figures suggest.
Original languageEnglish
JournalChina Economic Review
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2022

Corresponding author email

Project sponsor


Project name

China Europe International Business School


  • Chinese statistics
  • GDP deflator
  • GDP growth

Indexed by

  • ABDC-A
  • SSCI
  • Scopus


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