Peak sales time prediction in new product sales: Can a product manager rely on it?

Trichy, V Krishnan, Shanfei Feng, DC Jain

科研成果: 期刊稿件期刊论文

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摘要

Managers dealing with new products need to forecast sales growth, especially the time at which the sales would reach the peak, known as the peak sales time (T*). In most cases, they only have a few initial years' data to predict T*. Although product managers manage to predict T*, there is no method to date that can predict T* accurately. In this paper, we develop a new metric based on the diffusion modeling framework that can help in assessing the prediction accuracy of T*. This metric is built on the premise that observed sales growth is affected both by the force that systematically varies with time and by the non-systematic random forces. We show that the two forces must be carefully combined to assess if a predicted T* is accurate enough. In addition, we empirically prove the efficacy of the proposed metric.
源语言英语
文章编号114054
页数11
期刊Journal of Business Research
165
DOI
已出版 - 10月 2023

成果物的来源

  • ABDC-A
  • SSCI

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